Friday’s Insider: Fertilizer affordability update — November insights

November has brought its share of market shifts as we approach the end of the year, making it crucial to revisit fertilizer affordability against corn and wheat prices.

This month’s key inputs

• Corn price (11/25/2024): $4.38 per bushel
• Wheat price (11/25/2024): $5.57 per bushel
• Urea FOB NOLA (11/25/2024): $310 per short tonne
• DAP FOB NOLA (11/25/2024): $570 per short tonne

Market Context

Urea prices eased slightly to $310 per short tonne in November after October’s increase, reflecting cooling demand and some geopolitical de-escalation. Meanwhile, DAP prices declined marginally to $570 per short tonne, signaling tentative stabilization after previous months’ supply chain disruptions. On the crop side, corn prices edged higher to $4.38 per bushel, while wheat prices fell significantly to $5.57 per bushel, reflecting global supply pressures.

Affordability Ratios

To assess affordability, we compare crop prices to fertilizer costs. Here’s how the numbers look:

Urea Affordability

For corn:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0134
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0133
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0128
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0140
• 10/24/2024: Approx. 0.0133
• 11/25/2024: Approx. 0.0141

For wheat:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0199
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0187
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0186
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0191
• 10/24/2024: Approx. 0.0187
• 11/25/2024: Approx. 0.0180

DAP Affordability

For corn:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0074
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0076
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0071
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0080
• 10/24/2024: Approx. 0.0074
• 11/25/2024: Approx. 0.0077

For wheat:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0110
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0107
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0103
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0109
• 10/24/2024: Approx. 0.0103
• 11/25/2024: Approx. 0.0100

Affordability Analysis

Urea Affordability

For corn producers, affordability improved slightly in November as the ratio rose from 0.0133 in October to 0.0141. The drop in urea prices to $310 per short tonne, combined with a modest increase in corn prices, contributed to this improvement.

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For wheat producers, the affordability of urea declined marginally, with the ratio falling from 0.0187 to 0.0180. This reflects the sharper decline in wheat prices compared to the slight drop in urea costs.

DAP Affordability

For corn producers, the affordability of DAP remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in the ratio from 0.0074 to 0.0077, as corn prices edged higher while DAP prices eased marginally.

For wheat producers, DAP affordability improved marginally, with the ratio dropping from 0.0103 to 0.0100. This reflects the relative stability in DAP pricing combined with a notable decline in wheat prices.

Conclusions

November offered a mixed bag of changes for fertilizer affordability:

1. Urea: Corn producers saw improved affordability, while wheat producers faced tighter margins as wheat prices fell faster than fertilizer costs.
2. DAP: Affordability held steady for corn producers but showed a slight improvement for wheat producers, driven by DAP price stability.

With fertilizer affordability remaining a critical consideration as we move into the planting season, these trends highlight the ongoing need for cost management and strategic planning. I’ll continue monitoring these metrics to see how they evolve in the months ahead.

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About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of GG-Trading and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.