IMS Research says Pakistan faces a difficult agricultural year in 2025

The IMS Research Team has forecasted a challenging fiscal year 2025 for Pakistan’s agriculture sector, with significant repercussions for food security and the agricultural supply chain. According to a comprehensive analysis by Pakistan’s premier research house, multiple issues are poised to dampen agricultural outputs, particularly affecting major crops. This downturn is expected to exert substantial pressure on farmer incomes and could have severe consequences for the sales of essential agriculture chemicals and equipment.

The report details a series of setbacks facing the agriculture sector, including an estimated 19% year-over-year decline in cotton production. This decrease is attributed to a combination of adverse weather conditions, such as prolonged and intense heat waves, issues with water availability, and increased pest attacks. While rice production is projected to increase by 5% year-over-year, a significant drop in domestic prices compounded by international market pressures—stemming from India’s resumption of basmati rice exports and the removal of price floors—poses a threat to the profitability of Pakistan’s rice exports and farmer incomes.

The situation is further exacerbated by the wheat crisis of late fiscal year 2024, characterized by an oversupply and lack of governmental support that resulted in wheat prices falling 30% below the support price of fiscal year 2023. The weakened income from the wheat sector is likely affecting the planting decisions for other crops, echoing conditions seen in fiscal years 2016 and 2019 that previously led to declines in fertilizer uptake and tractor sales.

Early fiscal year 2025 reports indicate that sales of urea and DAP fertilizers have already dropped by 17% and 20% year-over-year, respectively, while tractor sales have dramatically decreased by 60%. Current economic policies under Pakistan’s new IMF program severely restrict the government’s ability to provide subsidies or support schemes to farmers, further complicating the outlook for agricultural growth.

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The dim prospects for agriculture are impacting broader economic targets, with the government’s fiscal year 2025 GDP growth target of 3.5% now appearing increasingly unattainable. Although there is potential for the central bank to implement measures to stimulate growth within the industrial and service sectors, the looming threat of resurgent food inflation and subsequent wage pressures could stifle these efforts. Additionally, the requirement for increased tax collection from agricultural incomes, as mandated by the IMF, poses another significant challenge that could necessitate more stringent fiscal measures.