Friday’s Insider: Fertilizer’s affordability — monthly analysis

Let’s dive back into agricultural commodities. August is behind us, and now I have two months to catch up on – August and September – while analyzing how fertilizer affordability is holding up compared to corn and wheat prices. I’ve set a reminder for myself to keep tracking this, as it’ll be interesting to watch the trend over a longer period. So, let’s break down what’s been happening recently.

Corn prices:

• 06/27/2024: $4.03 per bushel
• 07/19/2024: $4.05 per bushel
• 08/29/2024: $3.93 per bushel
• 09/23/2024: $4.42 per bushel

Wheat prices:

• 06/27/2024: $5.98 per bushel
• 07/19/2024: $5.68 per bushel
• 08/29/2024: $5.69 per bushel
• 09/23/2024: $6.04 per bushel

Fertilizer Prices (FOB NOLA – one of the most traded benchmarks):

Urea:

• 06/27/2024: $300 per short tonne
• 07/19/2024: $304 per short tonne
• 08/29/2024: $306 per short tonne
• 09/23/2024: $316 per short tonne

DAP:

• 06/27/2024: $543 per short tonne
• 07/19/2024: $530 per short tonne
• 08/29/2024: $550 per short tonne
• 09/23/2024: $553 per short tonne

Now, to gauge the affordability of fertilizers, we use a simple ratio – comparing the price of crops to the cost of fertilizers. Here’s where things stand.

Urea affordability

For corn:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0134
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0133
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0128
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0140

For wheat:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0199
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0187
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0186
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0191

DAP affordability

For corn:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0074
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0076
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0071
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0080

For wheat:

• 06/27/2024: Approx. 0.0110
• 07/19/2024: Approx. 0.0107
• 08/29/2024: Approx. 0.0103
• 09/23/2024: Approx. 0.0109

Affordability analysis

Let’s start with urea. For corn producers, the affordability ratio dropped between July and August, sliding from 0.0133 to 0.0128. That’s because urea prices nudged up slightly, while corn prices dipped. But by September, corn prices bounced back, pushing the ratio up to 0.0140 – meaning urea has become a bit more affordable for corn producers as their crop prices outpaced the rise in urea costs.

For wheat producers, urea affordability stayed relatively stable through the summer, with only minor fluctuations. From 0.0187 in July to 0.0186 in August, and finally settling at 0.0191 in late September, wheat producers are seeing marginally better affordability for urea as wheat prices rise alongside the fertilizer.

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Switching to DAP, affordability for corn producers took a hit between July and August, dropping from 0.0076 to 0.0071. By September, though, the ratio had climbed back up to 0.0080, thanks to an uptick in corn prices. For wheat producers, the DAP affordability ratio was on a steady decline throughout the summer, dropping from 0.0110 in June to 0.0103 in August. However, by late September, it improved slightly to 0.0109 as wheat prices pushed higher.

Summary

While corn and wheat prices have been climbing recently, the cost of fertilizers – particularly DAP – has also been inching up, making affordability a mixed bag for producers. Urea has become a bit more affordable, especially for corn growers, but DAP continues to challenge affordability, even though we’re seeing slight improvements in the past month.

As always, I’ll keep an eye on how these numbers shift in the coming weeks and months.

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About the Author of “Friday’s Insider”: Ilya Motorygin is the co-founder of GG-Trading and brings 30 years of experience to the fertilizer industry. Renowned for his comprehensive problem-solving skills, Ilya expertly manages deals from inception to completion, overseeing aspects such as financing, supply chains, and logistics.